No. NOT THAT KRUGER!!
Almost 25 years ago a couple of Cornell University psychologists named David Dunning and Justin Kruger developed a concept known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, and I believe that concept at least partially explains the broad ideological divisions in America today. I’m not a psychologist and I don’t play one on TV, but this notion is fairly straightforward. In essence what the researchers found was that when testing people on logic, grammar, and sense of humor, people believed they were better in these areas than they really were. People in the 12th percentile, for example, believed they were in the 62nd percentile.
Dunning and Kruger concluded that “Those with limited knowledge in a domain suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach mistaken conclusions and make regrettable errors, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it”. This applies to folks from all intelligence groups. We all believe we know more and understand stuff better than we really do. Further, if I have expertise or skills in one area such as Political Science I automatically assume I’m knowledgeable in other academic areas such as Psychology.
OOPS! WAIT! Not a good example!!
Folks from other academic disciplines have used Dunning and Kruger’s methodology to explore various topics, and the effect has been found in emotional intelligence, logical reasoning, firearm safety, financial understanding, medical training (that’s scary!), business, driving and, of course, politics. In all these areas people believe they are more competent than they are in reality.
When we attain a little bit of knowledge about a subject, we often believe we have expertise on that subject. Quite often we become so confident in our expertise that we believe we actually know more than others. I wish I could count the number of “debates” I’ve had with folks regarding, for example, Constitutional interpretation when those folks had in fact NEVER READ THE CONSTITUTION but had heard about some Constitutional issue in the news!
I could tell you more about the Dunning-Kruger Effect, but I don’t want to exaggerate my understanding of the research. If you want to read more about it this piece in Psychology Today offers a pretty darn good summary. Also know that as with almost all research there are holes in the conclusions, and folks (possibly me?) might sometimes use the concept inappropriately.
You should also know that I personally am not impacted by this effect because I have a loving wife who always lets me know when I’m full of crap. Ha!!
Why am I, Political Scientist extraordinaire who knows more about American Government than just about anyone in the world (that’s sarcasm, folks) writing about a psychological phenomenon? I think it is pretty obvious if you are on social media, if you watch “news” broadcasts, or if you pay attention to politicians.
About ten years ago a bunch of Political Scientists found that people holding extreme political opinions about very complex political issues actually knew much less about those issues than they thought. And research published two years ago found that when people claim expertise in a particular policy area (environmental policy, highway safety policy, foreign affairs, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, border policy, gender issues, etc.) they actually know much less than they think when asked to actually explain that policy area. The authors refer to this as an “illusion of understanding”.
And this at least partially explains our current state of political extremism. People often become ultra liberal or ultra conservative when they believe they know more than they actually do. They attain snippets of information from their favorite news source or political “leader”, and they then become experts. We see it all the time. Examples:
Someone sees a news commentator’s opinion about a Supreme Court decision, and suddenly this person has expertise regarding that case even though they have no clue how the Supreme Court works and cannot name a single justice.
A new poll found that 20% of America’s young people have a positive view of Osama Bin Laden. Why? Because they get their news from Tik Tok, a Chinese run social media outlet, and Tik Tok ran videos praising the terrorist. From those videos these young people became “experts” on Osama Bin Laden.
During the Covid pandemic a study of more than 2,000 people found that those with the least understanding of the virus but who were vocal on the matter had attained their “knowledge” from media or social media.
Examples outside politics? Bosses who believe they know more about running an organization than employees who have more ground-level experience? Or that one employee who believes s/he has all the answers? Or employees who are hired because they are very self-confident during an interview but who suffer from Dunning-Kruger?
You have to take my word for it because I couldn’t find the source again, but I remember reading that about 25% of those who had filed bankruptcy rated their financial knowledge as superior!
Another? One poll found that 90% of college professors believe they are “above average” teachers, and 2/3 thought they were in the top 25%. Sorry, but that math doesn’t work, and academia is not Lake Wobegon. I’m happy knowing I personally was always in the top 5%, however.
A fun example? Back in 1995 a dude named McArthur Wheeler had read that lemon juice was sort of like invisible ink. From this he assumed he could get away with robbing banks by rubbing lemon juice on his face. He was quite surprised to be arrested so quickly. A little knowledge can have major consequences!
And more relevant to this blog, a poll found that people who know less about politics actually believe they know a lot.
This poll found that people who are most dedicated to a political party were convinced they had a great deal of political knowledge when in fact they had only a moderate understanding. So, those folks who tend to be the most confident and vocal actually don’t know a great deal about politics. Yet another study found that people with fairly low political knowledge rate themselves as knowledgeable, and the below average group is more likely to rely on cues from their political party when evaluating the political knowledge of others! So not only are the low knowledge folks being led by the media outlets they follow; they are also being led (or misled) by political party leaders.
And this, girls and boys, is one important reason Americans are increasingly unable to actually consider the viewpoints of others and reconsider their own personal opinions.
So, a quick summary:
The Dunning-Kruger effect leads people to believe they are better at something than they really are. We often have a little knowledge about a subject then assume we know a great deal.
We know less than we believe we know, and we don’t know enough to know how little we actually know. (that sentence sounded like an Escher drawing!)
In politics this is important because those who actually know less think they know more, they are more vocal and forceful, and they get much of their “knowledge” from their party or party leaders.
I always try to offer solutions to problems I present, but there is really only one solution to the Dunning-Kruger effect: self-reflection and a willingness to challenge our own beliefs. Sorry, but I’m not seeing that a lot these days.
The bottom line is that if you think you know a great deal about a topic, you might know less than you think. I, for example, understand how to turn on and use a computer, but I don’t understand computer languages or hardware. And I have a basic (VERY basic) understanding of the building blocks of the Standard Model in particle physics, but I certainly don’t understand the advanced calculus and complex variables required to comprehend string theory. And I do know a great deal about the American government’s processes and policies, probably more than 95% of the public, but that doesn’t mean I understand everything.
Absolutism is killing American discourse, and I believe the Dunning-Kruger effect at least partially explains our tendency to automatically reject beliefs different from our own.
I hope you are happy, healthy, and warm. Thanks for following along.
David
All these years I have used the phrase "they know enough to be dangerous". I guess I should have been a psychologist. :)
All articulated very well. The solution - self-reflection - is also right on the money, though, almost by definition, anyone under the sway of Dunning-Krueger will be incredibly unlikely to self-reflect. It would, in a sense, be an admission that not only do they not know, but also an admission that they didn't know that they don't know. That much humility is a lot to ask of folks who already live in darkness and fear.