PREDICTING THE FUTURE

As humans we aren’t content to just let events play themselves out; we want to predict events and rationalize our predictions.

• I watch a lot of sports (maybe too much?) and the commentators in the pre-game show always predict who will win and explain why. Their picks are occasionally right, but wrong just as often.

• We rely on weather forecasters to tell us whether we need a raincoat or sunscreen.

• We pay attention to political pundits who predict the outcome of an election even months in advance.

• We have “gender reveal parties” to inform the universe of the gender of a pending birth rather than waiting for the delivery itself.

• We try to predict when the Yellowstone super volcano will erupt so we know when to say our final prayers (anticipated eruption is in 90,000 years, so very few of us will live to see it).

• We like having economic forecasters tell us whether the stock market will go up or down during coming weeks even though such predictions are inaccurate.

I’m not sure why we do this. Is it because we don’t like the randomness of the universe and, consequently, feel a need to impose order? Is it because we are dissatisfied with the current state of things and want them to be different? Is it because we want to believe we have magical powers of foresight and can predict the future?

Predictions are often VERY wrong.

• Ever hear of evangelist Harold Camping? On about a dozen occasions he predicted the end of the world based on his own Biblical interpretations. Every time he was wrong he modified his prediction.

• Newspaper headlines caused an international panic when they stated that in 1910 that Halley’s Comet might destroy the Earth. A group in Oklahoma reportedly tried to sacrifice a virgin to save the planet.

• In 1970 Harvard Nobel Prize winning biochemist Dr. George Wald warned that human civilization would end within 15-20 years unless humans immediately addressed issues of pollution, nuclear war, and overpopulation. In that same year Life Magazine stated that within ten years humans would be wearing gas masks, and by the mid 1980’s pollution would block half of the Sun’s light.

• In 1929 world-renowned economist Irving Fisher stated that “stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”. The stock market crashed three days later.

• Remember the Y2K predictions?

• In 1995 Robert Metcalf, the father of ethernet technology, said: “I predict the internet … will soon go supernova and in 1996, catastrophically collapse.” Almost thirty years later I’m posting this blog on the internet.

• In 2006 New York Times reporter David Pogue stated that Apple would never develop a cell phone.

• In 1895 S Lord Kelvin, a physicist and aerodynamics expert, stated: “Heavier-than-air flying machines are physically impossible.” Eight years later the Wright brothers flew their plane.

Aren’t these fun?

A little-known fact about old Dave. I finished my master’s degree in 1978 and didn’t pursue a PhD at that time because I was frustrated that “behavioralism” had become dominant in political science and other social sciences (a few years later I went back to get the PhD when the college for which I was teaching required it). I’m sort of an old-fashioned political scientist who loves studying political philosophy dating back to the Greeks as well as more modern approaches to the study of politics, but behavioralism led to wild attempts at quantifying human behavior. Specifically, behavioralist political scientists believe human political and social behavior can be predicted using “scientific” methods. I had a professor who honestly believed he could develop a mathematical model predicting when nations would suffer revolutions and/or coups using variables such as number of phones per capita, per capita income, number of highways in a country, and similar demographic data. Right!

These political scientists assumed humans behave rationally and that rational behavior may be predicted, to which I said…BS!! If people acted rationally there would be no unwanted pregnancies, there would be fewer automobile accidents because drivers would be paying attention, people would not commit crimes that could cost them their freedom, and voters would not choose politicians who do not share their values.

One problem with predictions is what is referred to as “the bandwagon effect”. When “experts” predict that something will take place that, to some extent, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. So, for example, when “experts” predict the outcome of an election based on the countless polls taken every week, voters who are not committed one way or the other will be tempted to choose the candidate who, according to the “experts”, will win, because we don’t like supporting losers. Or if economists predict a stock market crash, people start selling stock thus fulfilling the prophecy. People jump on the bandwagon. Yes, we are sheep.

Anyway, I have an idea. I know it might seem strange, but here goes:

WHY DON'T WE FOCUS ON SHAPING THE FUTURE RATHER THAN TRYING TO PREDICT IT?

Yes. I know. A strange and radical idea. But it’s a heck of a lot more reasonable than prediction.

• If we worry that the Earth will reach unlivable conditions within a century or so, let’s change our current behavior to protect future generations.

• If we are concerned about the outcome of the upcoming elections, vote to make a difference.

• If we predict that more school shootings will occur, do something to make schools safer.

• If we predict that fossil fuels will be exhausted in a few decades, fund research on alternate energy sources.

• Rather than predicting the likelihood of nuclear war, do something to reduce that likelihood.

As I’ve said previously, and as you can probably gather, I’m a dreamer. I’m naive enough to believe we are actually responsible for creating the future, both personally and as a society; I create my own individual future and together we create society’s.

I’m also fairly certain our current path will not lead to a better future for our children, but that’s only a prediction.

Thanks for following along.

David