Y2K 2025?

People always assume the worst. Maybe it’s human nature. Maybe it’s historical experience. Maybe it’s media prompts.

Remember Y2K? The world was supposed to come crashing down on January 1, 2020 because of computer programs that would make the year 2000 similar to 1900, thus crashing systems worldwide (remember that I’m a political scientist, not a computer scientist, so my explanation is likely WAY off target). Nonetheless, some computer “experts” said correcting the issue could cost billions of dollars, and the weeks leading up to January 1, 2020 were stressful because of the uncertainty.

And almost nothing happened. Even in countries where very little had been done to preemptively address the problem, very little happened. People lost sleep over a problem that was not that serious.

In some ways I believe, and certainly hope, the vitriolic anger and fear regarding the upcoming Trump presidency could be similar to Y2K. A large number of Americans and others across the globe expect President-elect Trump’s next term to be filled with retribution and recrimination, to set Americans’ rights back decades, to cost us international support from our staunchest allies, and much more. I’ve laid out my case against Trump on numerous occasions, and my opinions have never wavered, but I’ve actually been warned by friends and family to tone down my criticisms for fear I would suffer consequences. That’s the level of fear felt by some folks.

Of course the worst-case scenario is certainly possible since President-elect Trump will enjoy a majority of both houses of Congress, and his last term ended with a strong majority of Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices, but it is also likely the level of anguish many now feel is unwarranted.

Yes, I’m familiar with President-elect Trump’s frightening and, quite often, dehumanizing rhetoric. He refers to Democrats as “the enemy from within”, says Democratic leaders are “more dangerous than China and Russia”, refers to those with whom he disagrees as “radical left lunatics” and, according to Four-Star Marine General John Kelly, said “I need to have the kind of generals that Hitler had.” I know he has made comments about migrants “poisoning the blood of our country”, phrasing similar to fascists of the past, and has referred to his opponents as “vermin”, again dehumanizing those with whom he disagrees.

Than why do I believe the worst-case scenario is unlikely?

As I made clear in one of last week’s posts, Trump has a very poor record of actually fulfilling his promises. He speaks off script a large part of the time, and when he does so he consistently engages in self-aggrandizement, exaggeration and/or falsehood, and he makes promises that cannot possibly be kept. He plays to his crowd. Example: Trump promises to deport all 11 million undocumented folks currently residing in the United States, but doing so would be a logistical nightmare. According to AXIOS, all deportees would be entitled to a hearing, and there’s already a backlog of 3.7 million immigrants awaiting one. And the estimated cost of deporting 11 million immigrants would be between $150 and $350 billion. To be clear, I DO believe the number of undocumented folks crossing the border is problematic and must be addressed; I just don’t believe deporting all 11 million who are currently here is feasible.

I also believe moderate Republican members of Congress will reject the most radical of President-elect Trump’s promises. Example: The incoming administration is proposing taking away the FBI’s responsibility for conducting background checks on high-level appointees and giving that responsibility to private investigators (probably appointed by Trump), but some Senate Republicans have already rejected that option. Another example: Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has already warned that many of Trump’s most controversial Cabinet appointments will not easily pass Senate confirmation.

I also believe many moderate Republican legislators fear for the future of their party should Trump’s most radical ideas see the light of day. As I’ve said on numerous occasions, most Americans (like me) are ideologically moderates who find both Bernie Sanders’s ultra liberal and Donald Trump’s ultra conservative ideas objectionable. They see, for example, the public’s response to Roe v Wade’s reversal, a decision for which Trump takes responsibility; even voters in very conservative states such as Missouri and Kansas have now voted to protect abortion rights. Moderate Republicans will, I believe, balk at such future proposals with which a majority of Americans disagree.

Finally, a basic Republican principle is returning power to the states. By my count 23 of the nation’s 50 current governors are Democrats, and they preside over New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, and other large states. These governors will likely serve as barriers to some of the most radical of Trump’s proposals should he and his administration actually pursue them.

Yes, I find some of Trump’s Cabinet selections farcical. Yes, I expect to be disappointed/frustrated/angry over environmental, consumer protection, regulatory, and other policies the next four years. And yes, I’ll be embarrassed for our country if President-elect Trump’s mental acuity issues and incoherence intensify. But I was pretty unhappy with President Biden’s border policy, his attempt to circumvent Congress and the Supreme Court regarding student loan forgiveness (although I firmly believe higher education should be free or inexpensive for those who qualify), his moves to block Ukraine from NATO membership, and more. You may recall my frustration when Biden persistently refused to bow out of his bid for reelection.

The unfortunate consequence of democratic processes is that I don’t always get what I want (in fact I RARELY get what I want since we haven’t had a balanced budget in more than two decades!). The best solution is to work toward winning the next election and to fight against decisions we believe are wrong. On my end, I’ll continue writing about both Democratic and Republican policies with which I agree and disagree as long as I’m able.

My crystal ball is cloudy these days, but I do believe the pervasive Y2K-type fear could be unfounded. Check back with me in four years.

Thanks for following along.

David