WHO CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH?

My apologies for the slow return to Fiercely Independent. The Covid bug really hit me hard and left me with brain fog (even more than usual!) for a couple of weeks. Thankfully, I’m now almost back to “normal”. This post will be rather short, but I’ll offer something more thorough later this week.

In the past I’ve written about confirmation bias and our willingness to ignore facts that contradict our preconceived beliefs. This is, in my humble opinion, the greatest danger to our republic. If people refuse to accept facts or to even consider information that contradicts their current beliefs, our future is anything but bright.

As you well know, facts often play a secondary role during election campaigns, and this year is no exception. Your Fiercely Fact Checker is on the job to save the day!

Here are a few “facts” based on recent campaign claims:

• During her acceptance speech last week, Vice President Kamala Harris claimed Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs would cost middle-class families $4,000 per year. That estimate came from a left of center think tank, but I’m sure Harrises supporters took it as fact.

• Republicans blame Democrats for the mess at the Southern border, and much of that criticism is justified, but in 2013 House Republicans killed a very meaningful immigration bill that passed the Senate in a bipartisan 68-32 vote and, as you probably know, former President Trump killed the more recent bipartisan 2024 bill crafted by both Democrats and Republicans (including VERY conservative Republican Senator James Lankford), and he killed it for political reasons. Both parties are responsible for the border crisis. The number of illegal border crossings fell 32% in June this year, the lowest since Biden took office. It’s too bad Biden waited until May of this year to significantly restrict illegal immigration by eliminating asylum for illegal entrants; he should have done so in January of 2021.

• As is often the case, crime is a theme in this year’s presidential election. To be clear, presidents have minimal impact on crime rates, but as with the economy, they often either get the credit or the blame. Crime rates in the United States have consistently declined since the early 1990’s. Violent crime declined 49% from 1993-2022 (the last year for which data are available), and we also enjoyed a 59% reduction in property crimes (burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft, etc.). But it sure is easy to reach a different conclusion if we simply believe what politicians tell us. In every single Gallup poll since the 1990’s, at least 60% of Americans said there was more crime that year than the previous year although that is not true at all.

• America’s economy is, according to most polls, voters’ major concern. Both sides of the political aisle have been offering and will continue to offer accusations or to claim credit for various aspects of the economy. Their statements must be taken with the proverbial grain of salt.

  • According to the International Monetary Fund, America is the only member of the G 20 whose Gross Domestic Product exceeds pre-pandemic levels. In the decade from 2013-2023 American GDP was 2.3% compared to 1.8% of our G7 competitors.

  • In 2022 America’s average inflation rate reached 8%, was 4.1% in 2023, and was 2.9% in June of this year. The goal is a 2% inflation rate. Our inflation rate remains sightly higher than that of many peer nations but much lower than others. Here are current inflation rates worldwide.

  • Unemployment rose to 4.3% in June of this year, up from 4.1% in May. These are the highest unemployment numbers since October of 2021.

  • America’s deficit spending was 5.9% of GDP from 2013-2023, higher than the 4.5% of our economic competitors. As a consequence our debt continues to grow with neither party or candidate offering solutions.

  • The U.S. Dollar is still very strong on the world market and is now, according to Market Watch, valued fairly after being overvalued in recent months. The American Dollar remains the world’s “reserve currency”.

• In spite of what some politicians want us to believe, American crude oil production is at an all-time high thanks to production at new and more efficient wells. However, a good portion of this increase is a result of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, techniques considered controversial by environmentalists.

• Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have promised to reduce taxes if they win this fall, but neither has indicated what expenditures will be cut to offset the loss of revenue.

Finally, a word about RFK Jr. and his failed candidacy. Kennedy decided to end his campaign and reached out to Harris about a cabinet position. When she was not interested he then threw his support behind Trump (again hoping for a cabinet position) although in recent texts he said Trump is a “terrible human being,” “barely human,” and “probably a sociopath.” Don’t you just love politicians who stand by their convictions?

There are so many topics about which I want to write these days, but I’m struggling to remain objective about some subjects, so I’m avoiding them. I’m also still trying to find a way to reasonably condense Project 2025 and will offer that summary soon (I hope!).

Thanks for following along and for your patience as I climb back into the blogging saddle.

David

PS: I recently stumbled across THIS video of a minister who succinctly offers a view of what I personally believe Christianity (and other religions) should be. I believe this kind of Christianity could reverse the current trend of declining church membership.